Day: August 15, 2026

Rescue workers at the site of a Russian strike on a residential building in Odesa, Ukraine, this week.Credit…Nina Liashonok/Reuters

Nervous about being excluded by President Trump from any talks to end the Russia-Ukraine war, three European countries are working together to make sure Europe has a seat at the table, according to five European officials.

European diplomats are working on a format for future negotiations to protect European interests that would be led by France, Germany and Britain.

France and Germany are taking the lead in developing the European position, according to two senior European diplomats and a senior European official monitoring the effort. Britain, which has a new prime minister, is more hesitant, in part because it is nervous about testing its relations with Mr. Trump, the diplomats said.

There is little indication that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is ready for serious negotiations. The Europeans expect that any negotiation with Russia over Ukraine would be led by the United States, and as Russia is increasing its ballistic missile attacks on Ukrainian civilians, they are pushing for Mr. Trump and his envoys to re-engage with Moscow.

But a Ukraine settlement and relations with Russia are too important to Europe to be outsourced indefinitely to a Trump administration that appears increasingly unpredictable, said the officials, all of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. They want to ensure no deal is cut over their heads by Washington and Moscow.

Western officials and analysts expect the war to become more destructive as Mr. Putin presses for a winter offensive against Ukrainian lines and civilian infrastructure as Ukraine runs severely short of air defenses. Some expect Mr. Putin to order a modest if unpopular mobilization of new troops, but only after parliamentary elections in mid-September. And some even worry that Mr. Putin, feeling cornered, might try to escalate the war and test the solidarity of NATO, beyond hybrid attacks in Europe.

Mr. Putin has said that Russia must at the least obtain complete control over the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. If the Russians cannot do that by autumn 2027, officials and analysts said, talks would be more likely. And key decisions must be made in advance.

President Vladimir Putin of Russia speaking with defense ministry officials in a photo released by Russian state media this month.Credit…Alexander Kazakov/Sputnik, via Reuters

Asked for comment, the British Foreign Office said the discussion remained speculative, while an E.U. official insisted that various diplomatic efforts were complementary rather than competitive, and that a divisive discussion about representation now was not helpful.

For Europe, the stakes are enormous. Ukraine is a major security challenge, and a Russian victory there would have huge consequences. At the same time, Mr. Trump has made it clear that Ukraine is a European responsibility. Europe is already funding Ukraine’s war, and it is expected to provide security assurances to Ukraine after any settlement. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine “wants Europe at the table,” said Alexander Gabuev, the director of the research institute Carnegie Russia.

The 27-member European Union, which has passed 21 sets of sanctions against Russia and possesses the bulk of Russia’s frozen assets, would need to play a role. Both issues would be central to any diplomatic solution.

Britain, France and Germany believe they should be the core negotiators in support of Ukraine, three European officials said. The three countries, known as the “E3,” are the heart of the “coalition of the willing” supporting Ukraine and have drawn up options for military and security guarantees for the country after a settlement.

Poland, Italy and the Nordic countries must also be consulted and the European Union kept informed and later involved, the officials said, because some smaller countries, particularly those neighboring Russia and Ukraine, like the Baltic States and Hungary, do not fully trust Germany and France to represent their interests.

There was a flurry of meetings and debate around the issue in June as Mr. Zelensky pushed to prepare for talks with Russia and the United States.

Mr. Zelensky had reached out to Britain, France and Germany and met their leaders in London on June 7 to discuss the European role in future negotiations with Russia and to set out principles for any agreement. Four days later, the ambassadors of the three European countries had an unusual meeting in Moscow with Mikhail Y. Galuzin, a Russian deputy foreign minister who handles Ukraine.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine stood outside 10 Downing Street in London with Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany, Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain and President Emmanuel Macron of France after the June 7 summit.Credit…Henry Nicholls/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Kaja Kallas, the E.U. foreign-policy chief, acknowledged Mr. Zelensky’s outreach to Britain, France and Germany and said that the three were respecting “European core security interests,” including sanctions relief and the unfreezing of Russian assets. It was still too early to be definitive about representation, she said, but those core interests had to be heeded.

The European Union then made some tentative steps to open channels with Russia after Mr. Zelensky asked António Costa, the president of the bloc’s intergovernmental body, the European Council, to raise Ukraine with Moscow. Mr. Costa’s chief of staff, Pedro Lourtie, spoke with Russian officials including Yuri V. Ushakov, who has been the main Russian contact for Mr. Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, to try to open up a diplomatic channel.

“We cannot depend only on others to interpret Russian messages, and we must be able to convey directly to Russia our own messages,” Mr. Costa said after a European meeting June 19. But he conceded there were no “credible signs” from Moscow that it wanted to engage in “serious negotiations for the time being.”

In both cases, the official Russian response was dismissive, with Mr. Galuzin complaining that the three countries were “pushing Ukraine to continue the war against Russia.”

Inevitably, Mr. Costa’s outreach provoked divisions, with both France and Germany criticizing him for overreaching, Austria and Belgium supporting him, and the Baltic nations dismissing any approach to Moscow as playing into Russia’s hands.

President Emmanuel Macron of France, for his part, said that “when there are negotiations, the Europeans will have to be around the table,” and that “President Costa, within the competencies defined for him, will have a place.”

“We must be able to convey directly to Russia our own messages,” António Costa, one of the European Union’s top officials, said.Credit…Damien Eagers/Reuters

Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany emphasized that the three nations were acting “at the express request of Ukraine.” He added: “It also makes a certain internal logic that Britain, Germany and France are working closely together here; these are major European states, and they are also the ones contributing significantly to Ukraine’s military support.”

As for who would speak for the European Union, he said, “We will decide that when talks take place.”

Given Mr. Putin’s lack of interest, Europeans are engaged in wishful thinking, said Norbert Röttgen, a German legislator and security expert. “At some point Europe must be there, because European security is at stake and is no longer seen by Washington as a vital American interest,” he said.

“But for now,” Mr. Röttgen continued, “Putin sees an advantage in trying to divide the West and handle Europe through Washington.”

Others see a European approach to Russia as long overdue. The stakes are so high that Europe’s lack of direct channels to Russia since it invaded Ukraine in 2022 “is almost a criminal dereliction of duty,” said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, a research institute.

Hans-Dieter Lucas, a former German diplomat who has served as ambassador to NATO, France and Italy, said that there were lessons from the multinational talks with Iran over the 2015 nuclear deal, which he helped to negotiate.

“We cannot be behind the curve as we were” in November 2025, when Mr. Trump and Mr. Witkoff came up with their initial 28-point “peace plan” with Moscow, he said. “The Europeans have cards, but we need to play them smartly.”

Still, Mr. Lucas said, “We will need very close cooperation and coordination with the United States — otherwise the Russians drive wedges between us.” And here, he added, “We are back to the fundamental question of Mr. Trump and the trans-Atlantic relationship.”

Jeanna Smialek contributed reporting from Brussels.

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