8:53 AM 1/2/2018 – New Approaches to Intelligence Oversight in the U.K.

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Cybersecurity Predictions for 2018
7 key politics stories that happened over holidays – YourErie
Trump’s ‘2017 King of Fake News’ Poll Being Promoted by GOP – Newsweek
Pakistani Leaders Fire Back At Trump Tweet Accusing Them Of ‘Lies & Deceit’ – NPR
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Marc A. Thiessen: The 10 worst things Trump has done in his first year in office – The Times
Who is there to protect us? – Payson Roundup
Donald Trump’s Year of Living Dangerously – POLITICO Magazine
Global power and influence: Part 2: China, the rising global power – WikiTribune
Pakistan-US war of words over Donald Trump’s tweet – Aljazeera.com
Trump’s lawyer is a specialist in securing preemptive pardons – Washington Post
AP News in Brief at 6:04 am EST – Washington Post
5 national security challenges America faces in 2018 – The Week Magazine
Listen to ‘The Daily’: How the Russia Inquiry Began – New York Times
Netherlands to publish names of those involved in MH17 in Donbas Russian media – UNIAN
John Dean: Nixon ‘Might Have Survived If There’d Been a Fox News’ – Politico
Midterm madness: Five things to watch in the 2018 battle to control Congress – KING5.com
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Donald Trump – Google News: President Trump Returns to White House to Face a Challenging Year Ahead – TIME
Donald Trump – Google News: Trump Reverses the Obama Doctrine on Iran – National Review
Why is the NY Times suddenly so interested in Trump staffer Papadopoulos rather than the Russia dossier? – Fox News

 

Saved Stories – None
Cybersecurity Predictions for 2018

As the clock moves inexorably to a new year (and ), it is time to pick up our crystal ball and predict what 2018 will bring. In the field of cybersecurity there are some verities and some uncertainties. Here are our predictions for the year:

  • There will be at least one large-scale data breach, if not more. Just as 2017 brought us the Yahoo breach and the massive Equifax losses, there is no reason at all none to think 2018 will be any safer. While we cant say exactly who will be the victim, we can say with confidence that data breaches dont fundamentally change anything. Corporate behavior is unaffected and consumers quickly internalize the costs.
  • The U.S. Department of Homeland Security will finally get a cybersecurity leader for the National Protection and Programs Directorate. Its only been a year.
  • No significant federal effort will be made to protect the cybersecurity of the 2018 election. As long as executive branch leadership holds the official view that no Russian interference occurred in 2016, there is little reason to expect the federal government will take action. As a result, there will be serious questions about the integrity of the 2018 elections.
  • There will be a significant disruption of internet traffic caused by a botnet attack. Service will be blacked out and messages will be diverted. The disruption will last more than an hour.
  • Pressure on social media organizations to monitor content will grow significantly. The restrictions will start  to protect against sex trafficking. Silicon Valleys obtuseness to the nature of their influence will leads to calls for regulation. In response, they will engage in much greater self-censorship. Free speech will suffer.
  • The U.S. Justice Department will find a case where encryption is used to protect a putative terrorist. The case will create great pressure to legislate a mandatory decryption back door. By the end of the year, decryption legislation will be considered in Congress.
  • Distracted by other matters (like the pending midterms) Congress will not, however, pass any significant cybersecurity legislation at all.  They may fiddle a bit, but Rome will continue to burn.
  • The European roll-out of the General Data Protection Regulation in May 2018 will have substantial negative impacts on cross-Atlantic data flows. When the European courts rule against the US-EU Privacy Shield agreement, a full-scale data trade war will erupt.
  • The data trade war will be exacerbated by the Supreme Courts decision in the overseas data storage case. The court will force Microsoft to repatriate data held in Ireland to America. In response, Europeans will adopt reciprocal restrictions.
  • The most significant regulatory push in the United States will involve the internet of things.  Regulatory agencies like the Food and Drug Administration and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration will use existing authorities to impose security and privacy requirements on consumer goods hopefully in the form of standards but possibly in the form of mandates.
  • The Supreme Court will decide in the  case that Americans have a privacy interest in their locational information. Carpenter will win, but the court wont have a single opinion. Law enforcement will be confused. Congress will posture but not fix the problem.
  • More Chinese hackers will be indicted for the theft of trade secrets from American companies. None will, of course, ever come to trial.
  • Kaspersky Labs, having sued the government to get back into the federal procurement system, will win their suit because the government wont be able to disclose publicly precisely why it thinks there is a risk
7 key politics stories that happened over holidays – YourErie


YourErie
7 key politics stories that happened over holidays
YourErie
30 that George Papadopoulos had told an Australian diplomat that Russia had “political dirt” on Hillary Clinton in May 2016, a conversation that might have played a role in the FBI’s decision to open an investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 

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Trump’s ‘2017 King of Fake News’ Poll Being Promoted by GOP – Newsweek


Newsweek
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Newsweek
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Pakistani Leaders Fire Back At Trump Tweet Accusing Them Of ‘Lies & Deceit’ – NPR


NPR
Pakistani Leaders Fire Back At Trump Tweet Accusing Them Of ‘Lies & Deceit’
NPR
Pakistan says it is preparing a response to President Trump, who wrote in a New Year’s Day tweet that Islamabad was giving Washington only “lies & deceit” in exchange for billions of dollars in U.S. aid. In the tweet, Trump accused Pakistan a key U.S
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Trump Bets Big on the Economy – U.S. News & World Report


U.S. News & World Report
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U.S. News & World Report
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Ukrainian Nazism ideology must be recognized as crime – Crimean head – TASS

Ukrainian Nazism ideology must be recognized as crime – Crimean head
TASS
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Global Times
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The Russia Investigations: 4 Big Storylines To Watch In 2018 – New Hampshire Public Radio


New Hampshire Public Radio
The Russia Investigations: 4 Big Storylines To Watch In 2018
New Hampshire Public Radio
Previous Russian elections are, in many ways, the origin of the imbroglio. Then-Secretary of State Clinton irritated Putin when she questioned parliamentary elections in 2011. Later, American support for pro-Western elements in Ukraine pushedPutin’s 
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Lawfare (blog)
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New Approaches to Intelligence Oversight in the U.K.

The Snowden Effect

Few Britons were greatly exercised by the Snowden documents. For most of my compatriots, secret intelligence evokes thoughts of Bletchley Park and James Bond rather than the Stasi or extraordinary rendition. But the U.K. intelligence community (UKIC) was not immune from the damage caused worldwide by decreased trust on the part of service providers and their customers. Further pressure was applied by a series of legal challenges, some of them successful at least in part, in which the Snowden documents were deployed in the U.K. and in Europe.

The British government and the UKIC itself appear to have concluded that in this new and more contested environment, their interests are best served by greater transparency and stronger oversight.

These aims have been pursued in two different ways. First, since 2013, traditional parliamentary and judge or lawyer-led oversight mechanisms have grown some promising new teeth. Three reports of December 2017 (issued by the Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament, the Interception of Communications Commissioner and the Intelligence Services Commissioner) illustrate their improved bite.  In addition, I was myself asked to report on UKIC activities in 2015 and 2016. Each of those reports is referenced below.

Second, for the purpose of learning rapid lessons from recent terrorist attacks on the U.K., the current Home Secretary devised a new hybrid: the detailed internal review of agency decision-making practices, assessed and quality-assured by an independent person. As the person selected for this task I sought to approach it in the manner of a gadfly on the hide of the beast. An unclassified version of my conclusions, referenced below, was also published in December 2017.

Independent Reviews

The past five years have seen three principal types of independent intelligence review, not counting the judicial activities of the  in both the U.K. and the European courts.

First, the  (ISC), with its staff increased and its powers  to operational matters, has published some  and  reports. The perceived independence of the ISC has been much improved by provision for it to elect its own chaira feature  in Canada’s current plans for a National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians.

Second, the retired appellate judges entrusted with the oversight of specific aspects of intelligence activity are in the process of being replaced by the Investigatory Powers Commissioner’s Office (), a larger, more powerful and outward-facing regulator headed by the serving appellate judge Sir Adrian Fulford. Sir Adrian and his judicial colleagues, supported by legal and technical staff, will combine traditional oversight functions (well illustrated in the  of the Interception of Communications Commissioner, though IPCOs predecessors have been characterised as ) with a prior approval function in relation to all domestic and overseas warrants.

Fulford is not an ex-member of the Trotskyist Socialist Action League, in the manner of New Zealands redoubtable inspector general of the intelligence services, . But in the early weeks of his tenure, he has started to demonstrate his full independence by a clear  where the supervision of intelligence-sharing is concerned, by  and by appointing to his staff (subject to security clearance) two prominent non-government figures. figures: Eric King from Privacy International and the U.S. lawyer Cori Crider from Reprieve.

Third, and less formally, while serving as  (IRTL) from 2011-2017, a position about which Lawfares Benjamin Wittes in 2012, I was twice commissioned as a security-cleared independent lawyer to lead ad hoc reviews of UKIC activities. The first of those reports, , became a blueprint for the Investigatory Powers Act 2016. , published in August 2016 during the passage of that bill, evaluated the operational case for the various bulk powers used by the UKIC (interception, equipment interference or CNE, storage of metadata, bulk personal datasets). Taking inspiration from the work of the and  in the U.S., and supported by 60 case studies, it is probably the fullest available open-source account of how such capabilities are used outside the United States.

Independent Assurance

There can be no substitute for what each of those three mechanisms provides: the conduct by independent, security-cleared people of their own reviews into UKIC activity. But the terrorist atrocities that occurred between March and June 2017 in London and Manchester resulted in a new and unusual variant: assurance by an independent security-cleared scrutineer of detailed internal reviews conducted by MI5 and Counter-Terrorism Policing (CT Policing) into their own handling of pre-attack intelligence relating to those who perpetrated the atrocities.

Intensive work by large teams at both MI5 and the police enabled nine highly classified reviews to be completed by the start of November, covering 1,150 pages. The reviews constituted a minutely detailed account of the intelligence picture prior to each of the attackswhich should be of assistance to future inquests and inquiriesalongside 126 recommendations for operational improvement, some of them rather radical.

As the chosen scrutineer, though by now an ex-IRTL, I sought to influence this process as best I could by embedding myself for long periods of time within Thames House (the London home of MI5) and New Scotland Yard (from where Counter-Terrorism Policing is led), attending internal meetings, requesting internal documents, and generally making a nuisance of myself. As I wrote in , which was accompanied by a highly classified letter for the attention of the prime minister and others:

I formed a positive impression of the integrity of the review teams both at MI5 and CT Policing, and found most of the work with which I was presented, even at an early stage of the process, to be of a good standard. But given the request for assurance in my letter of instruction, it was necessary to test the product as rigorously as I could, and where possible to suggest improvements.

Accordingly, on what must have been (in total) many hundreds of occasions I made specific comments on drafts, asked for proof of assertions, requested documents and briefings, identified issues to be confronted, asked for more thorough accounts, suggested the restructuring of reports, challenged assertions that errors were inconsequential, advised that sensitive material was relevant, discouraged complacency and generally sought to promote the value of self-criticism. On a limited number of issues I also made the case, sometimes forcefully, for the consideration of specific operational improvements or for further-reaching recommendations than previous drafts had been prepared to contemplate.

Some of my suggestions or comments precipitated vigorous discussions, some were more appealing to MI5 than to the police or vice versa, and one or two proved controversial. But all were received with courtesy, many were taken up with enthusiasm, and every one was given effect wholly or in substantial part.

Would I recommend this kind of independent assurance as a model to others? Not in all circumstances. When large institutions are commanded to perform internal reviews, it is always possible that they will react by going through the motions, or digging defensive redoubts. Even when a window is opened to change, it can close again before long. An outsider who is there to comment rather than to direct an investigation risks being dismissed as a mere irritant by those whose conduct is being examined. Furthermore, association with a process managed by others risks damage to the reputation of the independent persona danger of which I was acutely conscious.

But on this occasionthough the final verdict is for others to reachit seemed to me to work well. There were two reasons for this.

First, the shock of successive multiple-casualty attacks had rendered the security services, for a time at least, genuinely open to the possibility of radical change. This enabled agreement to major reforms in relation to the setting of data-driven tripwires for former subjects of interest, the joint working arrangements of MI5 and CT Policing, the release of more knowledge derived from intelligence to local police and agencies, and the removal of outdated distinctions in the way that different types of terrorist threat are assessed and responded to. These and other changes are summarised, to the extent that it was open to me to do so, in my unclassified  the unclassified version of my report.

Second, the fact that these recommendations were generated by MI5 and CT Policing should mean that these organizations are fully invested in implementing those recommendationssomething that cannot always be said of external recommendations, which may be perceived within the organisations concerned as misguided or founded on an incomplete understanding of their operations.

The Future

I have been asked to monitor the implementation of the recommendations reached in the internal reviews. I look forward to doing so over the next 12 months and to sounding the alarm with the government and with Parliament if there is no follow-through on current good intentions.

The U.K.’s first experience of internal assurance was, I believe, a positive one. It produced more detailed and useful recommendations in a short period of time than an independently led review is likely to have done, yet was, in certain respects, more rigorous and more radical than might have been expected of a purely internal review.

But the new internal assurance hybrid makes sense only in limited circumstances, such as those which prevailed after the attacks of 2017. The openness to transformative change that followed the shock of those attacks cannot be expected to continue indefinitely. Independent external review of intelligence activity, as it has been strengthened over the past five years, remains the best guarantee that our laws and our liberties are being respected.

Donald Trump’s Year of Living Dangerously – POLITICO Magazine


POLITICO Magazine
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POLITICO Magazine
Ever since Trump took the oath of office on January 20, the world has been taking his measure, trying to make sense of his America First foreign policy and what it means for them. Over the course of the year, Trump has traveled to 13 countries and

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Global power and influence: Part 2: China, the rising global power – WikiTribune

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WikiTribune
His heirs extended that empire to most of modern-day China, Korea, Central Asia, regions in Eastern Europe and Southwest Asia. It is estimated that at its height, the Mongol Empire comprised one fifth of the world’s inhabited land area. By contrast 

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Aljazeera.com
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UNIAN
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UNIAN
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 Donald Trump – Google News

Donald Trump – Google News: Trump Reverses the Obama Doctrine on Iran – National Review


National Review
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National Review
Last week, former Obama national security advisor Susan Rice she of the infamously shifting Benghazi explanations published an op-ed in the New York Times dedicated to the proposition that Trump’s America first foreign policy has relinquish[ed 

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Why is the NY Times suddenly so interested in Trump staffer Papadopoulos rather than the Russia dossier? – Fox News


Fox News

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