By Dr. Arshad M. Khan*
be war with Iran? Will there not be war
with Iran? The questions are being asked
repeatedly in the media even though a single carrier task force is steaming up
there. The expression is old for the
latest carriers are nuclear powered.
Imagine the mess if it was blown up.
two kinds of weapons in the world … offensive and defensive. The latter are cheaper, a fighter plane
compared to a bomber. If a country does
not (or cannot afford to) have offensive intent, it makes sense to focus on
defense. It is what Iran has done. Moreover, its missile centered defense has a
modern deadly twist — the missiles are precision-guided.
Iranian general remarked when questioned about the carrier task force: some years ago it would’ve been a threat he
opined; now it’s a target. Iran also has
a large standing army of 350,000 plus a 120,000 strong Revolutionary Guard and
Soviet style air defenses. In 2016
Russia started installation of the S-300 system. It has all kinds of variants, the most
advanced, the S-300 PMU-3 has a range similar to the S-400 if equipped with
40N6E missiles, which are used also in the S-400. Their range is 400 km, so the Iranian
batteries are virtually S-400s. The wily
Putin has kept trump satisfied with the S-300 moniker without short-changing
his and China’s strategic ally. The
latter continuing to buy Iranian oil.
friends in Europe also. Angela Merkel in
particular has pointed out that Iran has complied fully with the nuclear
provisions of the UN Security Council backed Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
i.e. the Iran nuclear deal. She is
mustering the major European powers.
Already alienated with Trump treating them as adversaries rather than
friends, they find Trump’s bullying tiresome.
President Macron, his poll ratings hitting the lowest, is hardly likely
to engage in Trump’s venture. In
Britain, Theresa May is barely able to hold on to her job. In the latest thrust by senior members of her
party, she has been asked to name the day she steps down.
So there we
have it. Nobody wants war with
Iran. Even Israel, so far without a
post-election government does not want to be rained upon by missiles leaky as
its Iron Dome was against homemade Palestinian rockets.
of this neither Trump nor Secretary of State Pompeo want war. Trump is as usual trying to bully — now
called maximum pressure — Iran into submission. It won’t.
The wild card is National Security Adviser John Bolton. He wants war.
A Gulf of Tonkin type false flag incident, or an Iranian misstep, or
some accident can still set it off.
In Iran itself, moderates like current President Hassan Rouhani are being weakened by Trump’s shenanigans. The hard liners might well want to bleed America as happened in Iraq and Afghanistan.
*About the author: Dr. Arshad M. Khan is a former Professor based in the US. Educated at King’s College London, OSU and The University of Chicago, he has a multidisciplinary background that has frequently informed his research. Thus he headed the analysis of an innovation survey of Norway, and his work on SMEs published in major journals has been widely cited. He has for several decades also written for the press: These articles and occasional comments have appeared in print media such as The Dallas Morning News, Dawn (Pakistan), The Fort Worth Star Telegram, The Monitor, The Wall Street Journal and others. On the internet, he has written for Antiwar.com, Asia Times, Common Dreams, Counterpunch, Countercurrents, Dissident Voice, Eurasia Review and Modern Diplomacy among many. His work has been quoted in the U.S. Congress and published in its Congressional Record.
Source: This article was published by Modern Diplomacy
1. US Security from Michael_Novakhov (88 sites)