Counterintelligence from Michael_Novakhov (50 sites): The Trump Investigations Report – Review Of News And Opinions: mikenov on Twitter: Michael Novakhov on Twitter dlvr.it/R2mbcS

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Michael Novakhov on Twitter dlvr.it/R2mbcS


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on Sunday, April 14th, 2019 2:13am

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The Trump Investigations Report – Review Of News And Opinions

Counterintelligence from Michael_Novakhov (50 sites)


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1. US Security from Michael_Novakhov (87 sites): Eurasia Review: Charting A Way Forward In Sudan’s Unfinished Transition – Analysis

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Late at night on 10 April, after defying the most sustained protest movement in Sudan’s modern history for months, Omar al-Bashir finally lost his hold on power. In an early afternoon announcement on state television the next day, Lieutenant General Ahmed Awad Ibn Auf, Sudan’s defence minister and vice president, confirmed the rumours that had been swirling in Khartoum: the security forces had ousted the president and, he said, placed him in detention. Bashir, who took power in 1989 and was one of Africa’s longest-ruling strongmen, would rule no longer.

Reaction to this news has been mixed. Initially rapturous at the fall of an authoritarian figure whose tenure was stained by major human rights abuses,
economic decline and entrenched corruption, protesters soon expressed
disappointment at the terms of the handover the defence minister laid
out. Ibn Auf announced that a military council would take charge of the
country for two years. He also dissolved the government, suspended the
constitution and ordered a three-month state of emergency. Many
protesters had demanded a civilian-led transitional authority; in their
eyes, the regime seemed to be trying to preserve itself under the guise
of a coup.

It is thus apparent that the transition remains incomplete. The protesters’ ranks in Khartoum have continued to swell, with campaigners demanding more substantive change. Protester anger was captured in a new slogan declaring that “the revolution has just started”. Where before they chanted the “regime must fall”, thousands of protesters who marched on the streets in sweltering heat after the army announcement declared in a new chant that “the regime has not yet fallen”.

The protest movement that began on 19 December has already notched an
impressive achievement in compelling Bashir’s ouster. The peaceful
campaign has drawn participants from nearly every stratum of society.
Women have been prominent throughout. The urban middle classes have
joined with farmers and herders to stage near-daily protests not just in
the capital but also in smaller cities and rural villages. Traders,
students and a cross-section of professionals, notably doctors, have all
backed the campaign. Ruling-party supporters, including in the regime’s
traditional strongholds, joined opposition activists in the marches. At
the four-day, 24-hour sit-in outside the military headquarters that
tipped the scales against Bashir, Sudan’s tapestry of religious and
ethnic diversity was on vivid display, with members of Sufi orders
mingling with Christians and singing together late into the night.
Thousands of protesters have paid a high price, including imprisonment,
torture and death, for their participation.

A number of factors explain the protesters’ impressive staying power
and the authorities’ eventual decision to respond – up to a point – to
the calls for change. First, discontent is widespread over the country’s
economic crisis, which entails runaway inflation, crippling shortages
of essentials including fuel and a currency crunch. All but the
wealthiest Sudanese have felt the pinch. The government’s ill-judged
attempt to increase the price of staples such as bread sparked the
initial street actions that soon became a popular uprising. Secondly,
many young Sudanese view their elderly leaders as representing a
self-dealing, kleptocratic order focused on its own survival and
unresponsive to their needs and aspirations. Thirdly, the security
forces have themselves fractured, with mid- and lower-ranking soldiers
joining with the protesters, making clear that the regime’s base has
spindly legs. Ibn Auf reportedly delayed the announcement of a
transitional military council for hours because many younger military
officers were demanding a full handover to civilian hands. Bashir’s
senior security sector allies had to intervene. Reportedly, the
intervention was eventually announced after Ibn Auf, intelligence chief
Salah Abdallah Gosh and head of the Rapid Support Forces militia Mohamed
“Hemeti” Hamdan Daglo stitched together a backroom agreement to push
Bashir aside.

Protesters are right to be sceptical of the ruling elite’s intentions.
Ibn Auf, who will head the transitional military council, hardly
represents a break with the past. He is one of Bashir’s most trusted
confidantes, having been in his circle since 1989. He is allegedly
complicit in some of the worst abuses in Darfur, where the regime’s
scorched-earth campaign against rebels beginning in 2003 left between
200,000 and 300,000 people dead and 2.7 million displaced. The U.S.
State Department placed Ibn Auf, who was head of military intelligence
at the time, on a sanctions list in 2007. Some in the protest movement
accordingly perceive the announced change as a game of musical chairs.
As one protester told
reporters in Khartoum, in a refrain that has repeatedly been voiced
among the crowds: “They just replaced one thief with another”. Nor is it
lost on many Sudanese that Bashir’s camp has played this game before.
In 1989, when Bashir took power in a bloodless coup, he claimed to have
detained one of his closest advisers, the National Islamic Front leader
Hassan Turabi, in what was later revealed as an effort to disguise the
putsch’s Islamist nature.

As Crisis Group has stressed
since the protests broke out, many risks attend a political transition
in a critical country in one of Africa’s more conflict-scarred
neighbourhoods. To preserve his grip on power, Bashir kept the security
forces fragmented. The danger of fighting among disparate armed groups
in the event of a chaotic breakdown is high. Already, there are credible reports
of clashes between elements of the army, who are more sympathetic to
the protesters, and the loyalist National Intelligence Security
Services. To smooth the transition, several steps will be required:

  • A first priority is to prevent further violence. Since December,
    security forces have repeatedly fired on protesters, killing dozens. In
    announcing Bashir’s ouster, Ibn Auf declared a 10pm to 4am curfew. In
    effect, he was ordering the thousands of protesters outside the military
    headquarters to go home. Sudanese authorities must not attempt to
    disperse the demonstrators by force. Such a move would be not only
    bloody but counterproductive. A lesson from the last four months is that
    repression – including Bashir’s 22 February order banning public
    gatherings and opening the door for mass roundups of protesters – has
    done little to change the course of the protest movement. Authorities
    should avoid violence and instead seek to reach an accommodation with
    protest leaders on the way forward.
  • More broadly, Sudan’s generals should rethink their outlined plan to
    rule by extra-constitutional fiat for two years. An African Union
    declaration adopted in 2000 expressly forbids military coups as
    unconstitutional changes of government. Unless the security forces
    quickly hand over power to a civilian-led transitional authority, the AU
    should suspend Sudan’s membership and follow up with sanctions. The
    leadership of the country’s security organs should see a clear
    self-interest in avoiding such ostracism by giving the reins to
    civilians. If they do not, protests will continue, raising the spectre
    of an ugly confrontation that could plunge the country into the deeper
    turmoil they say they are intent on averting.
  • Demonstrators should form an umbrella group and put its leaders
    forward to negotiate with the military council. Up to this point,
    protesters have been understandably unwilling to reveal their leaders’
    identities given the security forces’ brutal record; they arrested and
    reportedly tortured the Sudanese Professionals Association leaders who
    issued public statements in January. With the transition having picked
    up pace, they should now change tack.
  • Ensuing talks should lead to a transitional authority along the lines Crisis Group has advocated
    since 2012: civilian leadership that includes members of the
    opposition, the ruling party and civil society; a defined period of
    constitutional reforms; and, at the end, free and fair elections.
    Without such a transition, Sudan should not receive the assistance from
    international financial institutions that it desperately needs to emerge
    from its economic doldrums.

International actors, viewed by protest leaders as having been lamentably quiet as campaigners braved police bullets, torture and arrests, need to weigh in more vocally and forcefully to achieve these goals and do everything possible to ensure protest leaders that do identify themselves come to no harm. The U.S. and EU, which both maintain ties with elements of the administration in Khartoum, should clearly warn against a violent crackdown and signal that individual commanders will face sanctions should they allow it. They should make clear that economic and other forms of cooperation with Sudan depend on genuine transfer of power to a civilian leadership. In a statement hours before the coup was announced, the U.S., UK and Norwegian governments called for an “inclusive dialogue” and asked Sudanese authorities to respond to protesters’ demands in a serious and credible way. They and others, including the EU, should follow that public message with behind-the-scenes diplomacy with the generals now in charge in Khartoum. Their message should be that greater repression will carry the price of continued isolation and will prevent Sudan from addressing the long-term economic and political crises underpinning the unrest. Sudan’s other partners, notably Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, likewise should encourage the military leadership to avoid a crackdown that would provoke further unrest and instability.

Sudan sits at a strategic corner of Africa, surrounded by neighbours facing internal difficulties of their own. Not least of these is South Sudan, for whose peace agreement Sudan remains an important guarantor. Other adjacent states – Egypt, Libya, Chad, the Central African Republic, Ethiopia and Eritrea – will also watch developments anxiously. Should Sudan descend into chaos, the turmoil could spill across borders. Sudan’s partners ought to move quickly to persuade military authorities in Khartoum to heed the Sudanese people’s call and allow for a credible, inclusive, broad-based transition to steer Sudan to greater stability after Bashir’s long, chequered and bloody tenure.

Source: International Crisis Group

Eurasia Review

1. US Security from Michael_Novakhov (87 sites)


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mikenov on Twitter: The FBI News Review: “mueller” – Google News: Breaking Down the XI | Mueller Starts; Big Changes – Orlando City SC – The News and Times dlvr.it/R2mX7j

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The FBI News Review: “mueller” – Google News: Breaking Down the XI | Mueller Starts; Big Changes – Orlando City SC – The News and Times dlvr.it/R2mX7j


Posted by

mikenov
on Sunday, April 14th, 2019 1:25am

mikenov on Twitter


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1. Russia from Michael_Novakhov (114 sites): “US – Russia relations” – Google News: Our View: US arms bill all part of president’s risky game – Cyprus Mail

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Our View: US arms bill all part of president’s risky game  Cyprus Mail

HOW paradoxical that as most opposition parties raved about the submission of the bill to Congress proposing the lifting of the US arms embargo on Cyprus, the …

“US – Russia relations” – Google News

1. Russia from Michael_Novakhov (114 sites)


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“mueller” – Google News: Breaking Down the XI | Mueller Starts; Big Changes – Orlando City SC

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April 13, 2019

“mueller” – Google News: Breaking Down the XI | Mueller Starts; Big Changes – Orlando City SC
“house judiciary committee” – Google News: Guest lineups for Sunday morning TV news shows for April 14 – Daytona Beach News-Journal
“mueller” – Google News: UFC 236 results: Poliana Botelho survives late charge, takes decision over Lauren Mueller – MMAjunkie
“gregg jarrett” – Google News: 2019 NBA playoffs scores, highlights, results: Magic shock Raptors; Nets sink 76ers; Warriors take on Clippers – CBS Sports
“Andrew McCabe” – Google News: DANA MILBANK: It’s the season for treason | Opinion – The Daily Freeman

“mueller” – Google News: Breaking Down the XI | Mueller Starts; Big Changes – Orlando City SC

FBI from Michael_Novakhov (26 sites)
Orlando City is set to take on Real Salt Lake a Rio Tinto Stadium in Utah. With a wealth of options at his disposal, Head Coach James O’Connor has significantly rotated tonight’s lineup. 
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“house judiciary committee” – Google News: Guest lineups for Sunday morning TV news shows for April 14 – Daytona Beach News-Journal

FBI from Michael_Novakhov (26 sites)
Saturday Apr 13, 2019 at 7:45 PM Newsmakers on TV Here are the guest lineups for the Sunday morning TV news shows (lineups subject to change without notice):
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“mueller” – Google News: UFC 236 results: Poliana Botelho survives late charge, takes decision over Lauren Mueller – MMAjunkie

FBI from Michael_Novakhov (26 sites)
By: John Morgan | April 13, 2019 7:13 pm ATLANTA – Poliana Botelho (8-2 MMA, 4-1 UFC) got out to a quick start, then survived a late Lauren Mueller (5-2 MMA, 1-2 UFC) charge to take home a decision win.
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“gregg jarrett” – Google News: 2019 NBA playoffs scores, highlights, results: Magic shock Raptors; Nets sink 76ers; Warriors take on Clippers – CBS Sports

FBI from Michael_Novakhov (26 sites)
The 2019 postseason got underway on Saturday with a four-game slate leading off the first day. The action started with the No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers taking on the No. 6 Brooklyn Nets in the first game and it wasn’t exactly what many expected.
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“Andrew McCabe” – Google News: DANA MILBANK: It’s the season for treason | Opinion – The Daily Freeman

FBI from Michael_Novakhov (26 sites)
In the Oval Office on Thursday afternoon, President Trump gave a lesson on American justice to the visiting South Korean president. Speaking about the Mueller investigation and its origins, Trump said: “This is actually treason.”
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